Problems ahead wrote on Dec 10, 2007 11:21 PM:There are plenty of people in San Diego North County that would love to buy a home, they just can't afford the 20% down, the multi thousand dollar monthly mortgage payment, the multi thousand dollar end of year tax bills with tacked on fees, the high SUV monthly payments with auto insurance, increasing medical insurance costs, food costs, gasoline costs etc. Until wages begin to rise and family wealth increases, all the wishful thinking about a better year ahead in RE will turn out like the previous two years.There are no more free lunch loans in the market. Now you either got it or you don't.

couldn't fool me again wrote on Dec 10, 2007 11:24 PM:Sold my townhouse in Shadowridge, Vista for $405,000 in July '05. I saw on realtor.com that the one next door, EXACTLY like the one I sold, is up for sale...$310,000, and it hasn't sold!! Remember what realtors told you? "Prices never go down, they ain't makin' any more land in California; prices can only go up!!" HA HA heard all that before in the early '90s. You can fool me once but you can't fool me twice. Stuck all my equity in CDs and now I'm watchin' what the realtors said could never happen. POP! goes the bubble.

Owner wrote on Dec 11, 2007 5:06 AM:This entire article is nothing more then an advertisement for the Realtors. They are trying to spin this thing like recovery is going to start happening in the next several months so you better buy now. What a load this is. Nobody can or will hold them accountable for the lies and mis-truths in there predictions. All they want to do is get back to collecting their 6% per cent commissions. All of you used car salesman realtors out there need to go reopen Aloha Motors and make a living lying about the quality of the cars you are pushing.

Editor wrote on Dec 11, 2007 7:45 AM:The first graph doesn't match the story. Is the legend backwards?

couldn't fool me again wrote on Dec 11, 2007 11:00 AM:"Owner" is right. this whole article is spin. I would like to ask the realtors one question. When is it NOT the time to buy? You say now is the time to buy, 6 months ago was the time to buy, last year was the time to buy, the year before that...etc, etc. You even told the poor lady who bought my townhouse two years ago (who is now upside-down to the tune of $100,000) that "now is the time to buy." How can you say it with a straight face without busting out in laughter? In response to the article that there are buyers out there. Actually, there are NO buyers. Only people who want homes who can't afford or won't pay the high prices that were created buy the corruption and greed of subprime loans. The "liar loans" are gone and so too are the artificially high prices they created. The bubble has burst and prices will trend down to historical averages, 3 to 4 times annual income with 10 to 20% down payment. Realtors who think we are going to return to bubbleland next year are living in fantasyland.

What is??? wrote on Dec 11, 2007 12:34 PM:Will somebody explain what the value in knowing the difference between a median priced home and average price home???? The median is 50% higher and lower and doesn't really represent anything logical to the average home buyer considering that the expensive homes are the ones that are selling. I am guessing that the average home price is closer to reality, except when expensive homes drag up the average. Why not post the increases or losses in 100K increments and that way we could find our area home market price with some comfort of reality. How about real numbers for a change...

Cal Ray Is Right wrote on Dec 11, 2007 1:44 PM:"What is," you're abosolutely correct. The median price does nothing for anyone. It just distorts the truth, thereby having all the Sheeple thinking that now is a good time to buy. It's not!!! It won't be in 2008 or 2009 either. Look to 2010 - 2012 to buy a home unless you're into paying too much for your house.

Make a house your home wrote on Dec 11, 2007 4:39 PM:If anything good can come out of this real estate disaster is that maybe people will stay put and think about making neighborhoods again. You remember those, the ones where families knew each other, kids played together and we actually cared who lived next door. We watched people flee our neighborhood with their equity for greener pastures during the real estate boom, only to now be flipped on their mortgages and wondering what happened to the good life. Too bad they didn't recognize that they had it to begin with before they moved.

To make your house a home wrote on Dec 11, 2007 5:24 PM:California has never been known to have neighborhoods. People in the midwest have neighborhoods, people in California have "tracts" or "phase two." People in the midwest have block parties with their neighbors (with whom they went to High School.) People in California have their equity to maintain. They sue their neighbors for an unapproved color scheme or unapproved tree planted in the front yard. They put up walls and gates to add to the paranoia and look the other way when you simply attempt to make eye contact. They simply vanish into their houses after the garage door slams shut. Sad but true. But oh! what great weather.

Alf wrote on Dec 11, 2007 5:40 PM:There are some of us in the "boomer" generation that actually consider a house a home. I built mine and I am not moving until I die and even then some of my ashes will go under the Tipu tree. Merry Christmas! Alf.

iggy wrote on Dec 11, 2007 6:09 PM:"There's buyers out there, but they're just not buying. They're sitting on the fence, waiting for (prices) to drop more. They're going to see it drop and then they'll wait for it to drop some more," said Chuck Smiar, a Prudential Realtor in Escondido. "They all think it's going to go to zero, and they're going to be in for a surprise." HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Rational expectations wrote on Dec 11, 2007 7:39 PM: Mr. Fears is an economist like I am the pope. Insolvent bond insurers do not equal lower interest rates. Just the opposite. The spread between jumbo rates and conforming rates reflects the difficulty in finding anyone with money who wants to invest in mortgage securities. This is not going to go away soon, and certainly will not be resolved by insolvency. Just the opposite. Fears' "cleansing of the markets" will exacerbate existing problems. He has seen the plague and diagnosed a head cold. Simple suggestion: attach an "expert's" track record to a prognostication. I very much doubt that anyone associated with the Real Estate industry will be willing to do this (honestly). Why can't this reporter detect spin?

Max wrote on Dec 11, 2007 8:44 PM:Lying realtors are always saying it's a good time to buy. Think for yourself-- there is no good reason to buy a house in SD in the next two years unless you like losing money. Financing rules have completely changed, so prices must continue to fall.

realnews wrote on Dec 11, 2007 8:53 PM:In addition to the NCTIMES, if you want the real news, read the Financial Times. It's a financial paper published in the U.K. and has the least spin of any financial paper I've ever read, and it has no useless, brain numbing celebrity news.

Marlene wrote on Dec 11, 2007 9:36 PM:Hopefully we all know by now that R.E agent’s jobs are to sell homes and only to sell homes no matter what the cost is. They don’t care about people their not even human themselves. Their the ones that direct consumers into bad loans and than blame it on the lenders (lenders are at fault also) but for now I’m talking about R.E agents. I love it when you talk with one and they say the market is turning around it’s a great time to buy. That tells you they than know nothing about financing or marketing and you differently don’t want that person advising you. Anybody can get a R.E license and a lot did the last few years. My thinking is we need to get rid of that job position completely and come up with a better resource. Anybody can find a house, it’s the money/lender that’s hard to get

Tyrone wrote on Dec 11, 2007 10:14 PM:You should find the article at the Motley Fool title, "Down Isn't Up. Really", where the NAR gets ripped for their most recent claim about rising Pending Sales. But lets see, $590K median home price... so the median income in the North County is $150K+. Is that right? BWAHAHAHA Check out the ARM reset schedule. Prime/Alt-A/Neg-AM are next in the queue. North County will be hit hard over the next few years as these begin to reset. Lot of news today about credit and liquidity problems in the financial industry. Bumpy ride ahead...

Taison wrote on Dec 11, 2007 10:32 PM:This article is absolutely useless but a realtor advertisement. Stronger high-end market? Brighter 2008? Time of opportunity? (Means good time to buy?). What a load of crap. The high-end market is just started to decline. 2008 will be the worst year of ARM reset. But of course, . The should trade mark that sentence.

Taison wrote on Dec 12, 2007 8:33 AM:They should trade mark the sentence "Now is the best time to buy".

Martin wrote on Dec 12, 2007 9:00 AM:So everybody know realtors are sales people who by definition are liars and aren't held accountable for their statements. So why does the newspaper quote them? The Chuck Smiar Prudential Realtor in Escondido comments where rather funny. Sounds like the slow business is getting to him. Hopefully he saved some money from the above average sales rate to tide him over for the drought that we'll be in for the next several years. People like this readally accept prices doubling in 3 years, why is it so hard to accept that they'll halve in three more. Nothing changed in North County, if anything the commutes have gotten even worse, nope, the only thing we had was temporarily lending insanity. Normal lending standards are returning, and with it, normal prices.

look at the messenger wrote on Dec 12, 2007 2:32 PM:Kurt Kinsey reminds me of my childhood friend who was the first to jump into the lake. Moments later he turned around to tell me, through chattering teeth and blue lips that "the water is warm, come on in!" If you jump into this housing market you will die of hypothermia.

Anyone wrote on Dec 13, 2007 1:26 PM:Why would the editors print an article that is so clearly disproportionate with the facts? Using the median is an unreliable measure of price, there is over a year of surplus inventory on the market (and increasing) and lending standards are tightening. How does this translate to a miraculous turnaround? Interesting that there is not one comment on this story that agrees with the article...

Buying soon.... wrote on Dec 13, 2007 6:07 PM:Builders have stopped putting inventory on the market. The current sales are at cost,or less, for them. Prices are not going lower for new homes than they are today. To believe prices will drop 30% below replacement value over the next few years is just silly. The crash is over, 2008 will be the year of flat lining and 2009 will see appreciation across the board. To believe othewise is ignore the "cost" of a new home to builders.

Jas wrote on Dec 13, 2007 8:32 PM:US home price is actually not high comparing the house price in Australia. The California home price is very affordable in Australia standard.

GetReal wrote on Dec 14, 2007 1:58 PM:"Builders have stopped putting inventory on the market." Have you driven through North County lately??? There are tons of houses being built. And no, the fact that builders will eventually not make a profit anymore does not mean that prices will stop falling. Where were you in 1993? That was when builders walked away from half-finished tracts and went into bankruptcy.

RealityCheck wrote on Dec 14, 2007 2:53 PM:Anybody who can pick up a newspaper...any newspaper, magazine, periodical, etc...can see that prices are falling! I am sick of all the hype real estate agents fed into this mess and all the banks that supported them. They deserve the crash they are getting and so do the people who were greedy...and could not simply do the math! You cannot afford it...you can't afford it then...you can't afford it now! Save your family from the embarassment of losing your home. You want to know the real price of homes? Take every price of homes in California right now and divide it by "2.5". Don't believe me? Then, you also deserve what you get.

couldn't fool me again wrote on Dec 18, 2007 7:24 PM:To Buying Soon. Lenders will eventually unload at ANY price, because the carring costs will eat them alive. That's why so many went bankrupt in the '90s. Buyers determine the price, no one else. It's only worth what someone is willing, or can, pay. And right now with the mortgage industry in shambles, very few can pay.

Veritas wrote on Dec 26, 2007 6:44 AM:Whay Off "self promoting" marketing spam piece to keep their 6% sales commissions afloat. If anyone buys a SD property now they are catching a falling knife as its still seriously over inflated. This is the first wave of equity declines. Values will decline to balance rental incomes and local salary levels. Say good bye to at least 50% of todays appraisals by the end of 2010 in SD.