50th: Kaloogian out, Roach decision unknown
By: WILLIAM FINN BENNETT - Staff Writer | ∞
NORTH COUNTY ---- The suspense continued to build Monday over whether Rancho Santa Fe investor Eric Roach will challenge Brian Bilbray for the GOP nomination in the June primary election for the 50th Congressional District seat formerly held by disgraced conservative Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
Bilbray received more votes than any other Republican in the April 11 special election to choose a temporary replacement for Cunningham through December. He will now face off against Democrat Francine Busby on June 6. One of two Democrats who ran in the April 11 contest, Busby handily won that party's spot, winning almost 44 percent of the votes.
But when voters go to the polls in June they will also be casting ballots in the regularly scheduled primary where each parties' voters will choose their candidate to compete in November's general election. The winner of that election will serve a full two-year term starting in January.
In the past several days, speculation has abounded as to whether all of the 13 Republicans who lost to Bilbray would unite behind the former Congressman in support of his candidacy for the June primary.
On Monday, second place GOP candidate Roach could not be reached for comment, but a campaign spokesman said the millionaire businessman has not yet made up his mind whether to run in the primary. And third-place finisher and former state Assembleyman Howard Kaloogian said in a phone interview that if Roach decides to run in the primary, he would support him and not Bilbray.
Meanwhile, local and state Republican Party officials said Monday they would not be endorsing any Republican candidate for the primary election. However, both officials expressed concerns that if any Republican candidate decides to compete against Bilbray for the GOP nomination, any negative campaigning between the two in the coming weeks could hurt the party.
Roach run possible
With Roach's decision still up in the air, the possibility remains that he will insist on running. Bilbray captured 15.26 percent of the ballots in the April 11 special election, edging out Roach by about 1,000 votes. When the initial results came in early Wednesday morning, Roach had said he was considering asking for a recount. But he changed his mind once the final tally came in that showed him still trailing Bilbray by more than 1,000 votes. Roach also conceded defeat to Bilbray in the special election, but left open the possibility that he would run against him in the primary.
On Monday, Roach campaign spokesman Stan Devereux said that Roach was traveling and not available for comment.
However, Devereux said there is a big difference between Tuesday's election ---- where voters of any party affiliation could vote for any candidate ---- and a GOP primary election, where only Republicans will be able to cast their ballots.
"The outcome might have been different on April 11 had it only been limited to Republicans," Devereux said.
He said that since Bilbray's narrow win in last week's election "some of the candidates in the special election" have encouraged Roach to stay in the race for the primary nomination. Other candidates have recommended that Roach drop out of the primary, Devereux said.
"Eric Roach is the conservative and Bilbray has taken a more moderate position on some of the votes that are important to conservatives," Devereux said of Bilbray's five-year record in Congress.
Reached by phone Monday, Bilbray said he had spoken with Roach late last week and the Rancho Santa Fe investor had told him he needed a few days to rest and make his decision on whether or not to run in the primary. However, Bilbray said Roach should make his decision with great care.
Bilbray said he believes Democrats are hoping and praying that Republicans do not unite behind a single candidate.
"They think that is their only hope," Bilbray said. "I would hate to give the D.C. establishment what they want: a divided Republican Party."
With 105,000 registered Democrats versus 157,000 registered Republicans, the 50th District seat has long been considered a safe one for the GOP. However, in light of the Cunningham scandal ---- he recently pleaded guilty in federal court to tax evasion and bribery charges and is now serving an eight-year, four month sentence in federal prison for the crimes ---- Democrats have said they see the election as ripe for an upset.
The Kaloogian factor
Perhaps lending strength to Devereux's argument was Kaloogian's statement Monday that he is dropping out of the Republican primary race and will support Roach if he decides to run. Staunch conservative Kaloogian came in third among Republican candidates in the April 11 election, winning a 7.44 percent share of the votes. He said he spent the weekend mulling his options and decided against running in the primary.
"Instead, I will enjoy being a private citizen," Kaloogian said.
If Roach decides to stay in the primary race, Kaloogian said he would choose him over Bilbray.
"I would like to support a conservative and clearly I think Roach is," one Kaloogian said.
As far as Bilbray is concerned, "I don't know what makes him a conservative," Kaloogian said, accusing him of a voting record that is less than conservative on issues like gun control and abortion.
Local and state Republican officials appeared to be dancing on egg shells Monday when asked whether Roach should continue to fight for the nomination.
California Republican Party Chairman Duf Sundheim said the state party has not taken a formal position in support of any single candidate for the GOP primary. Nor would the party make such an endorsement, he added. To do so would be "unprecedented," Sundheim said.
However, when asked whether it could hurt the party if Roach or another Republican decided to battle it out with Bilbray for the GOP nomination, Sundheim had this to say: "Those looking at the primary need to weigh their personal ambition against what is in the best interests of the country and the party."
Ron Nehring, chairman of the Republican Party of San Diego County, said the party will aggressively campaign in support of Bilbray and against Busby in the runoff election. However, like state party official Sundheim, Nehring said the local Republican Party will not endorse any GOP candidate for the primary election.
If there is more than one Republican candidate running in the primary, a nasty battle between Republican candidates for the primary nomination could produce some "unintended consequences," Nehring said. And those unintended consequences are more likely if "Republican candidates decide not to abide by Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment, 'thou shall not speak ill of another Republican.'"
Speaking of unintended consequences, UC San Diego political science professor Gary Jacobson said that if Roach were to win the primary elections, "it may be that some of Bilbray's supporters would be angry enough to vote for Busby."
In a Monday phone interview, Jacobson, who specializes in congressional elections, said that if Roach runs in the primary and Bilbray and Roach have to duke it out for the nomination, it stands to help Busby's candidacy.
If Bilbray "sees Roach going after him, he will have to move to the right and that would be to Busby's advantage," he said.
It's even possible that while Bilbray could win the runoff election for the temporary seat, Roach could end up taking the primary election, Jacobson added.
"It's not likely, but it is conceivable," he said.
Contact staff writer William Finn Bennett at (760) 740-5426, or wbennett@nctimes.com. To comment, go to nctimes.com.
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Clean Government wrote on Apr 17, 2006 9:33 PM:Brian, Ask your supporter Mayor Lori Pfeiler of Escondido about the Palomar Pomerado Health Foundation disclosures. i.e. Form 460, Form 990 and PPHF's Audited Financial Report. Let’s see if you really believe in cleaning up government. Francine, What do you think about Palomar Pomerado Health Foundation disclosures? I think you should find out before commenting. Take a look them. I bet you’ll be surprised. " The one that answer these questions will get our votes
Gosh, I can feel the tension wrote on Apr 17, 2006 10:13 PM:In the air.
Bill wrote on Apr 18, 2006 1:46 AM:Are Republicans felony stupid?!? They choose a lobbyist, of all people, to carry the Republican flag into battle, immediately following the resignation of Duke Cunningham for public corruption? A lobbyist who has disrespected North County in the past? Why not just concede, hand the seat on a silver platter to the Democrat, and save a few million dollars in the process?
True 50th Republican wrote on Apr 18, 2006 5:37 AM:Run Roach, RUN!!!! Please, anyone who can reason knows that we must have Roach run in the June Primary. While we could tolerate a carpet-bagging liberal for a few months the future of this district requires a conservative hand. We can not allow a pro choice, anti gun, environmental activist, lobbyist from Imperial Beach to represent North County for the next 20 years as Congressman.
ALBERTO wrote on Apr 18, 2006 6:51 AM:Kaloogian's whining about vote purity on abortion and gun control demonstrates his abject disconnect with voters in 2006. Perhaps Kaloogian should endorse the Pope or Charlton Heston. Endorsing empty suited Roach, who has zero voting record, further demonstrates Kaloogian's clouded judgement and vindictiveness.
Harry wrote on Apr 18, 2006 7:35 AM:The Republicans of North County elected and re elected the worst congressman in United States history and were disgraced and embarressed when his perfidity was brought to light. Next they give support to a discarded congressman turned lobbiest. Now a "True Republican" strings together a series of meaningless emotionally charged labels to defame a qualified and principled lady who is prepared to fight corruption and governmental abuses. Francine Busby is the choice that means a change in Washington.
fred wrote on Apr 18, 2006 7:36 AM:If the carpetbagging Bilbray doesn't want to divide the Republican Party he should drop out!!
Conservative Repub wrote on Apr 18, 2006 8:25 AM:I wouldn't vote for lobbyist carpetbagger Bilbray under any circumstances. Roach has my full support, even if Francine has the district for six months. Tell Bilbray to stay in the liberal areas of San Diego where he really lives. He would never REALLY represent a conservative North County.
clean up time wrote on Apr 18, 2006 8:45 AM:and someone tell Kaloogian to pick up his signs that are littering Encinitas parks, streets, and sidewalks.
Harry wrote on Apr 18, 2006 9:31 AM:To Clean Up Time" I am afraid that Kaloogian and the Cunningham- Republicans are better at making messes than at cleaning them up. I imagine Kaloogian will leave the "clean-up" to public workers at tax payers expense. Now to clean up the mess in Washington, Vote For Busby.
Patrick wrote on Apr 18, 2006 10:13 AM:Run Republicans run, your reign of pillaging and plundering is over!
R.H. wrote on Apr 18, 2006 10:29 AM:to harry and clean up time: I see more than Republican signs littering the roadways. Democrats think that any problem will get solved if you throw enough money at it, but what do they care? it's not their money.
stop the name calling wrote on Apr 18, 2006 11:03 AM:What is it about Dems and their name calling? Grow up! Unfortunately the trick to elections is to find the lesser of the evils- Busby is no saint and Billbray is a paid lobbyist. We need someone that hasn't been corrupted yet or doesn't need the money, I will vote for Roach.
D wrote on Apr 18, 2006 12:43 PM:i'll vote for Buzzbee just to send a message that we need roach in Nov. WRITE IN ROACH
Sure, sure. wrote on Apr 18, 2006 1:02 PM:Let's go for more of the same. Bomb everyone. Jail everyone. Makes me feel better. You?
RUN FAR wrote on Apr 18, 2006 3:35 PM:Republicans are all the same, only their birth names are spelled different. They should run far, far, and scared. Busby will clean up the corruption these idiots all voted in for years. They are probably all prison pen pals with their bud Duke, getting campaign advice from their hero.
Hahaha wrote on Apr 18, 2006 3:49 PM:The only thing Busby will be cleaning out is her campaign office after losing 46-47 to 53-54, just like Donna Frye did. Wake up. The national Dems already know this, guys!
Rob wrote on Apr 18, 2006 3:59 PM:I can't believe we ended up with Bilbray. Come on Republicans wake up ! DO you really want another RINO like Bush. I hope Roach stays in, Kaloogian people get behind him, we have to get Bilbray out of there. We need a decent conservative who won't go to D.C. and disappear into the 'good old boy club'back room. How could Jerry Sanders endorse the RINO.?
Farmer's Daughter wrote on Apr 18, 2006 8:03 PM:Packard won on a write-in; Roach could too. Just be smart enough to color in the dot and write in the name...if that isn't too much information. Bilbray has lived here nine months. He used to call us NIMBYs when he was a public servant supervisor. We'd all be breathing trash burning plant fumes if he had his way. Elect someone who will represent us, the people, not a corporation. Anybody but Bilbray.
Chris wrote on Apr 18, 2006 10:45 PM:Hey, Rob, maybe because Jerry Sanders is a RINO.
To Farmer's Daughter wrote on Apr 19, 2006 5:13 AM:I have also suggested a wtite-in. What do really have to lose? When the going gets tough, the tough get going. Let's make it a plan! I'm with you.
El Guero wrote on Apr 19, 2006 9:39 AM:Wow, there certainly seem to be a lot of Roach supporters out there. Could you also be the main target audience for the new HBO series Big Love? Roach is a neoconservative money guy, as is Kaloogian. Bilbray is a conservative, a conservationist, and a surfer. Roach and Kaloogian would give us more Cunningham -- a slavish devotion to the Bush-Republican agenda of free trade, offshoring, and 'guest workers' who never go home. Give me the surfer anyday.
Bodecea wrote on Apr 20, 2006 8:06 AM:I welcome Roach's running...on his own dime. Let him join in. It is about time that 3rd party candidates step up to the plate. Bilbray is a carpetbagger AND a lobbyist to boot.
El Guero wrote on Apr 20, 2006 6:17 PM:I guess the Big Love crowd really loves Roach. I hope when he's elected and defeats the Dems he'll continue the Bush policy of sending American jobs offshore and sign off on the Bush-Dem Senate bill to allow gazillions of new, poorly-paid 'guest workers' to inhabit our once-lovely country. A vote for Roach is a vote for the dissolution of America.
Surfer, NOT wrote on Apr 20, 2006 11:33 PM:Hey El Guero - Your surfer boy Bilbray isn't a dream candidate, more like a nightmare. Just remember his adamant support of the trash burning plant in San Marcos, when he called us all NIMBYs. You could surf with him, but you'd be choking on the fumes. He's no different than any other RINO. Take the surfer, any surfer, anybody but Bilbray. He's been bought and paid for by Duke Energy, Reliant, Sempra, Enron, Wal Mart, Chevron, Halliburton, Bechtel Group, and General Atomics, just to mention a few of his 2000 contributions. Some surfer dude.
El Guero wrote on Apr 21, 2006 7:53 AM:Actually, Surfer NOT, you make a valid point. The trash burning idea was a fiasco, and if Bilbray supported it he was wrong. But as for being "bought and paid for" by the special interests you mention, I doubt it. True, he lobbied for some Indian bands, and accepted contributions from many of those companies. But you think Filner, Davis, Cunningham, Hunter, et al didn't? My sense is that a neophyte opportunist like Roach would be MUCH more likely to fit that mold, the swine.
republican wrote on Apr 26, 2006 11:32 AM:Why is it that everyone is treating the 50th Run-off as a 2-person race? There are two other candidates on the ballot who TRULY deserve the consideration of every Constitution-loving citizen: one of these, a Libertarian, lives in Oceanside - outside the 50th. The other - William Griffith, Independent - is a true, Constitutional, republican - a classic conservative of the first order. We have an opportunity, here in the 50th, to show the NATION that Independence LIVES. Vote for WilliamGriffith.us.
Mimi wrote on Apr 26, 2006 11:54 PM:How about a "none of the above" category on the ballot - and if "none of the above" gets the most votes we just dont put anyone into the office for that term. I'll bet we would soon find out that we don't need all of those politicians on our payroll. After all - look how long we were without representation when Cunningham was in office.
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